Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 23.827372 27.101609 30.624044 34.690712 39.251644 44.204395 49.985265
2024-12-29 18.791149 23.190286 28.280334 34.587168 42.172934 50.983221 61.970458
2025-01-05 16.801946 21.833583 27.928272 35.820044 45.731006 57.725090 73.295856
2025-01-12 14.558333 19.825441 26.474976 35.432684 47.123987 61.797596 81.532905
2025-01-19 12.294388 17.462489 24.233372 33.681508 46.440241 62.974957 85.912472
2025-01-26 11.367094 16.749451 24.031887 34.508092 49.075783 68.479580 96.116380
2025-02-02 10.613253 16.176089 23.928360 35.394819 51.769626 74.127991 106.738445
2025-02-09 9.639182 15.180165 23.125380 35.195554 52.877298 77.597505 114.475372
2025-02-16 8.718101 14.167281 22.196871 34.709672 53.488033 80.333908 121.242283
2025-02-23 8.082634 13.524553 21.749340 34.872012 55.009387 84.394693 130.052166
2025-03-02 7.574653 13.031168 21.478178 35.258169 56.851372 88.971705 139.792709
2025-03-09 7.094039 12.536237 21.158232 35.527283 58.499376 93.302782 149.328673
2025-03-16 6.528788 11.865595 20.527048 35.285784 59.375727 96.569606 157.518089
2025-03-23 6.124083 11.431460 20.244799 35.581202 61.109041 101.230317 168.081723
2025-03-30 5.913364 11.312063 20.467050 36.706292 64.222591 108.172213 182.515771
2025-04-06 5.460876 10.722117 19.844534 36.357066 64.866133 111.179239 190.768871
2025-04-13 4.814846 9.721512 18.433872 34.548445 62.930543 109.872274 191.901040
2025-04-20 4.640511 9.586722 18.541872 35.399908 65.576619 116.218084 205.915911
2025-04-27 4.485606 9.475024 18.680149 36.305958 68.353143 122.890283 220.747135
2025-05-04 4.188239 9.059136 18.227502 36.102567 69.143940 126.208323 230.005758
2025-05-11 3.877458 8.589529 17.639294 35.604911 69.365760 128.535625 237.631794
2025-05-18 3.673613 8.320760 17.414213 35.771186 70.796667 133.019218 249.182339
2025-05-25 3.511056 8.124239 17.314550 36.166511 72.662893 138.339242 262.410843